Since ChatGPT’s late-2022 release, countless headlines have prophesized an apocalyptic future for workers:
- “We asked ChatGPT which jobs it thinks it will replace — and it’s not good news for data entry professionals or reporters” — Fortune, Feb. 8, 2023
- “Goldman Sachs Predicts 300 Million Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded by Artificial Intelligence” — Forbes, March 31, 2023
- “Here’s how many U.S. workers ChatGPT says it could replace” — CBS News, April 5, 2023
- “ChatGPT AI lists jobs it can do better than humans as millions could be put out of work” — Fox Business, April 5, 2023
- “ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners” — The Washington Post, June 2, 2023
- “This A.I. Company Wants to Take Your Job” — The New York Times, June 11, 2025.
And yet, in the nearly three years since, we have yet to see the kind of massive labor market shake-up that alarmists predicted, according to an Oct. 1 report from Yale Budget Lab.
The report finds that people haven’t shifted between jobs, new roles haven’t emerged at scale and workers haven’t been automated out of their positions. For now, AI has likely not come for your job.
That’s not to say people aren’t worried. An Aug. 13-18 poll by Reuters/Ipsos found that 71% of respondents are concerned AI will be “putting too many people out of work permanently.” The fear is clearly real.
Still, the Budget Lab says it’s not surprising that AI has yet to seriously disrupt the job market. History tells us that new technology typically takes decades to upheave the workplace.
“Computers didn’t become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows,” the report says. “Even if new AI technologies will go on to impact the labor market as much, or more, dramatically, it is reasonable to expect that widespread effects will take longer than 33 months to materialize.”
Over time AI is expected to unsettle the labor market, but some occupations — and experience levels — are particularly vulnerable to the threat.